How Danske Gas grew several dozen times over in a year

The National Indicative Target has been in place for years, and every importer fulfils it. Why do you describe it as a cost item rather than a regulatory obligation?

Because, in an importer’s calculations, the NCW is a cost item in every cubic metre, not a formality at the end of the year. The obligation is imposed on every entity placing imported fuel on the market. It is fulfilled with biocomponents and through the other routes provided for in the legislation, and each of those routes has its own price, which moves with the market. Two importers bringing in the same quantity of diesel may therefore incur different costs for the same obligation, and the difference stems solely from how it is fulfilled. An importer that meets the NCW by a single method – bio-blending and buying biocomponents at market prices – pays whatever that single method costs at the time. An importer with several routes at its disposal pays for the cheapest configuration available. Since the cost depends on the method of fulfilment, it is something to be calculated, not a box to be ticked.

What did the 2025 amendment to the Act on Biocomponents and Liquid Biofuels change?

Two things. It raised the obligation: to 10 per cent in 2026–2029 and to 14.9 per cent in 2030. And it widened the range of methods by which the obligation can be fulfilled: alongside biocomponents, there are now renewable electricity, biomethane, including bioLNG, and advanced biocomponents made from waste and residues. At the same time, it capped the share of biocomponents from food-based feedstocks at 6.1 per cent. The consequence for the importer is simple: the obligation is growing, while its simplest route has a ceiling. The remainder has to be met with advanced biocomponents or through other routes, and each of them has a different price. That turns the NCW into an optimisation problem. The same obligation can be fulfilled at a higher or a lower cost, and the difference is measured in zlotys per cubic metre.

What does the Danske Gas model involve?

Taking over imports together with the obligation. The importer buys diesel and petrol from Danske Gas. Danske Gas acts as the importer, so the NCW obligation for that volume, together with the record-keeping and the annual settlement, passes to us. We deliver the fuel by road tanker, by rail or in full seaborne cargoes, depending on the customer’s scale. The NCW price for a consignment is fixed, and the risk of changes in the cost of fulfilling the obligation after the transaction is concluded is borne by Danske Gas. We guarantee a fuel cost lower than when importing on your own – by up to several dozen PLN per m³. The guarantee is a contractual provision.

This is fundamentally different from buying biocomponents on the market. When buying biocomponents, an importer buys one of the methods of fulfilling the obligation, at the current price, and bears the risk itself. From us, it buys fuel with the obligation fulfilled, at a price set for the consignment. The obligation, the record-keeping, the choice of routes and the risk sit with us.

How do bio-blending, bioLNG and electricity come together in a single model? What does the customer physically receive?

Two things need to be distinguished: the composition of the fuel that physically reaches the customer, and how the obligation is fulfilled in the annual settlement. Bio-blending is mandatory and applies to the fuel: we blend biocomponents into diesel and bioethanol into petrol, at the required share. The customer receives fuel that meets the standard, as it would from any importer. We fulfil the remaining part of the NCW with a portfolio of over a dozen products, including bioLNG and electricity – from long-term contracts to solutions that bring the fuel market and the energy market together. These products do not end up in the customer’s tank. They are used to fulfil the obligation, which we settle for the calendar year, and each of them corresponds to a route provided for in the Act.

Our own algorithm calculates continuously, with every change in market prices, and selects the lowest-cost configuration for each basket of deliveries. That is why the configuration is different for every consignment: a different volume, different ports and dates, different market prices on the pricing date. The result of that calculation forms the basis of the price you receive.

If the NCW price for a consignment is fixed while biocomponent prices change, who bears the risk? And how does Danske Gas make its money?

Danske Gas bears the risk. Once the transaction has been concluded, a movement in the prices of biocomponents or other products in the portfolio does not change the price in your contract; it changes our cost of fulfilling the obligation. We can take this on for two reasons. First, the portfolio: we fulfil the obligation with over a dozen products, so a rise in the price of one shifts the configuration towards the others. Second, the long-term contracts in the portfolio, which give us a price that does not depend on the day’s market prices.

We make our money on the difference between the guaranteed price and our own cost of fulfilling the obligation for the whole basket. The guarantee is a contractual provision, so the offer only makes sense if our model works out cheaper than importing on your own. It is not a matter of goodwill but of arithmetic.

How does an importer check that the obligation has been fulfilled for its fuel? And what should it send to get a quote?

We settle the NCW for the calendar year for the entire volume a given customer purchases from us. We keep records of the consignments and products used to fulfil the obligation; on request we provide a statement for your volume. The biocomponent chain holds KZR INiG certification and Bureau Veritas attestation. The company itself can be checked in the register of licences granted by the President of the Energy Regulatory Office (URE) and in the list of excise entities; the full set of licences, registers and identifiers is available on danskegas.com in the Corporate governance section.

Four pieces of information are enough for a quote: annual volume split between diesel and petrol, ports or delivery points, the schedule, and the consignment structure. On that basis we prepare a quote for the specified basket of deliveries. Danske Gas can also provide import financing, including for deliveries in full seaborne cargoes; the scope and terms are agreed individually, according to volume and schedule. Contact: warsaw@danskegas.com, switchboard +48 22 490 8000, danskegas.com.

This model is new to the Danske Gas offering. Why did you build it, and why now?

We built it for ourselves first. Danske Gas is an importer and fulfils the same obligation on its own volume; the portfolio and the algorithm were created so that our own imports would cost less. We refined the model drawing on our own experience and, from autumn 2026, we are making it available to importers as a service. The timing is no accident: the obligation has risen to 10 per cent, the range of routes has widened, and the difference between a single method of fulfilment and a portfolio has become large enough that it pays to pass it on in the price.

The NCW model follows from what Danske Gas is – a multi-energy operator with licences for liquid fuels, electricity and natural gas. The NCW is the first place where these markets meet in a single calculation for the importer, and we will put the same method of calculation to work wherever regulation links fuels with energy. As for 2030: the 14.9 per cent level makes the method of fulfilment matter more; it does not change the principle. A new route enters the portfolio like any other product. An importer that fulfils the NCW by a single method today will pay proportionately more for that method in 2030. An importer with a portfolio pays for the cheapest configuration available in a given year.

Danske Gas has grown several dozen times over in the space of a year. What is behind that pace?

The company has grown several dozen times over within a year, and the team several-fold. Every quarter brings new trading desks and new products. We hire people from the major energy groups; they come with a product they have known for years and build the desk for it here. We are expanding strongly into green electricity. We are bringing the seaborne trading experience gained in Denmark and Switzerland to the Polish market.

Who stands behind this guarantee?

A joint-stock company with share capital of PLN 20 million and licences from the President of URE for trading in liquid fuels, including cross-border trade, and – since June 2026 – for trading in electricity and natural gas, including cross-border trade; the licences are valid until 2040. The company’s financial statements are audited by Grant Thornton. In July 2026, ING Group doubled the financing provided to the company. I built Danske Gas from the ground up. The risk the company takes on under the guarantee is risk to my capital.